Doubt and Certainty
-
-
All problem solving deals with doubt and aims to reduce it. Whilst the desire is usually to have certainty, it is a scarce commodity. That is why there are so many insurance organizations in business. However, it is essential in all problem-solving, to consider the factors associated with doubt and certainty, as they affect the risk and the rewards.
A good starting point is to review the factors identified in the centre of the CPS models, and ask what level of information you have. It is also valuable to listen to what people say at meetings, and the way they say it. A lot of the time is given to issues of doubt. You will hear people start sentences with phrases like “I am not sure that….” or “I am convinced that ….”
Now both statements are about levels of doubt or certainty. It is your job to use your problem solving skills to ascertain as far as you can, how accurate people are when they say they are not convinced. Also, consider what else has to be done to reduce uncertainty when people are unsure of the decisions they should make.
-
Christopher Columbus
Any great advance in understanding, requires courage to turn doubt into certainty. There were many who said that Christopher Columbus would never return from his voyage in 1492. There was talk from the ‘flat earth believers’ that he and his crew would sail into an abyss at the end of the ocean. Despite this and concerns amongst many of the sailors, Columbus had the determination to continue. In the process he discovered a new world, albeit not the one that he had originally predicted. Therefore, in order to reduce doubt and increase certainty, you need to gather information and communicate effectively, so that others can have confidence in your proposals.
-
Applications
All of the skills in the Communication and Problem Solving Diamond contribute to reducing doubt in the following ways:
-
Enquiry is the foundation for research to discover information related to a problem. Therefore, when confronted by doubt, increase your understanding by research via enquiry.
-
Diagnosis is critical to reducing doubt as it will pinpoint, if accurate, the cause of problems. Therefore it is important to spend time on testing and assessing the reasons that problems occur.
-
Summaries are very helpful in putting into words what may be unclear, and in the process it helps everyone to consider doubts and confirm agreements.
-
Proposals aim to move forward solutions, yet there may be doubt about the outcomes. If so, then evaluation and small scale tests are important to reduce doubt.
-
Coordination is designed to bring about order towards getting things done. It is vital that people know what is required of them, so they are not in doubt regarding the expectations.
-
-